Entry
$345.37
Ends
Oct 5, 2027
Conviction
Medium
Search is still growing 17% despite years of “AI will kill Google” fears, and Cloud is now a second engine, up 82% with a $514B backlog driven by TPU demand from Anthropic and Meta. Direct TPU chip sales add a new revenue stream, with most of the impact landing in 2027. YouTube is steady, not spectacular. At ~22x forward earnings, I think the market is still underpricing Cloud.
What would make me wrong
Capex keeps climbing past $200B while free cash flow stays negative and Cloud margins stop expanding. Or search growth falls below 10% for two straight quarters, or TPU deals slip and the 2027 hardware revenue doesn’t show up.