Entry
$352.62
Ends
Oct 9, 2027
Conviction
Medium
I think Google (alphabet) looks like pretty good value right now. Google is valued at around $4.2 trillion, compared to roughly $965 billion for Anthropic and $850 billion for OpenAI. Anthropic was valued higher than OpenAI partly because people saw it as having better models, but now Google is actually the favorite on Polymarket/Kalshi to have the best AI model by the end of 2026. I think as long as Google can keep up with the leading models, which it seems perfectly capable of doing, it's in a really good position. And even if Gemini never becomes the best model, Alphabet still has Search, YouTube, Cloud and a bunch of other profitable businesses. To me, it just seems like a pretty good way to invest in AI without having to bet on who ultimately wins the model race.
What would make me wrong
AI capex keeps growing without meaningful returns, forcing Alphabet to take on significant debt or dilute shareholders.