Calibration for investors: are you as right as you think?

You need two things for every call: how sure you were when you made it, and how it turned out.

• Mark each call low, medium or high conviction when you make it, not afterwards.
• After 20 or more closed calls, group them by conviction.
• Compare how often each group was right, and the average return of each.

If your high-conviction calls do clearly better, your confidence carries information and you can size positions by it. If they don't, it doesn't, and you should size more evenly until it does.

• Wins are remembered as skill and losses as bad luck, so confidence grows faster than results.
• Conviction is often decided after the fact: the call that worked gets remembered as the one you were sure about.
• Few people keep enough calls on record to see a pattern.

Write the conviction down before you know the outcome, in a place you can't change later. Keep going until you have enough closed calls to compare. Then look at the misses first: the high-conviction calls that failed usually share a habit, like trusting management or chasing a story.

SoFo scores calibration on your profile from the conviction you set on each call, next to process and returns. See how to keep an investing journal for the rest of the routine.